marine weather discussion for N Pacific Ocean NWS ocean prediction center Washington DC 620 PM PDT Sat 26 may 2012

.Forecast discussion: major features/winds/seas/significant .Weather for the North Pacific N of 30n and E of 150w.

No major changes are anticipated for the eve update as a weakening front crosses pz5 and nrn pz6 (calif) wtrs. The 18z mdls are similar to the earlier 12z guid...with no headlines expected for the next 5 days across the off wtrs.

Seas...sea hts range from 11 to 12 ft ovr srn calif wtrs to 4 ft ovr wash off wtrs. These sea hts are gnrly within a ft or so of the 18z mww3 WV watch iii mdl guid. Again...little change is anticipated for the eve update from the prev opc fcst.

-------------------------------------------------------- Prev discussion...

At 26/1800z low pres 1002 mb in the Gulf of AK has a weakening ocldd frnt stretching se along the Canada coast then turns S to pass just W of the NW wash wtrs. A wkng wrn frnt contnes S with an assctd cld frnt stretching SW. Hgh pres 1035 mb due N of the Hawaiian islands along 40n has a ridge into most of the region. A deep inland low pres 999 mb ovr NV St has a trof xtndg NW acros oreg and wash states. The pres grdnt is just tight btwn the hgh and low pres espcly ovr the ern parts of the cntrl wtrs where Max winds have been reaching just below gale force. The curr snop obs hv Max winds below gale force ovr the ern parts of cal wtrs. The ltst ascat pass at 1812z showed winds below gale force ovr the wtrs.

Models...the glbl mdls hv equally initailized well and are in agremnt on the main features that will impact the region wtrs...except the Gem which dffrs in the fcst for the Gulf of AK waters by mid next week. Otherwise GFS is OK.

Short term...thru Mon night...the hgh ovr the pac will remain in the same vcnty and will maintain a ridge ovr the region. The pres grdnt will relax farther keeping the winds below gale force. The low pres in the Gulf of AK will slightly mv se as its assctd cld frnt mvs E while weakening but will stretnghen as it charges near the coast while its srn portion passes acrs the srn wtrs.

Extended period...Tue thru Thu...high pres will keep maintaining a ridge ovr the region as a deep low approaches the Gulf of AK pushing a cld frnt E in its se sector. The frnt will reach the nrn wtrs and force a tight pres grdnt that will result in elevated winds but will remain below gale force. Hgh pres wil be cntrd within 360 nm W of the cntrl wtrs and that will block the frntl sys from getting closer to the wtrs and will instead push them into the Gulf of AK while its ridge will cover most of the region.

Seas...the seas are hghest ovr the cntrl cal peaking at 13 ft and the nww3 and ECMWF WV mdls fit well with the obsvd seas pattern. The WV mdls continue to depict agrmnt with the frcst and so will stay close to nww3 for seas.

Extratropical storm surge guidance...N/A.

.Pz5 Washington/Oregon waters... .Cape Flattery to Cape Lookout...none. .Cape Lookout to point St George...None.

.Pz6 California waters... .Pt St George to pt Arena...none. .Pt Arena to pt Conception...None. .Pt Conception to Guadalupe island...None.

.Forecaster Mills/musonda. Ocean forecast branch.